Presidential Politics Data Series
Nov. 07, 2016
As our previous coverage noted -- and recapped in another brief here -- sentiment (and largely polling as well), took a sizable positive turn for Hillary Clinton in early October. This correlates especially with the final debate and with the now infamous audio-tape of Donald Trump and Billy Bush. However, this momentum was short-lived for Clinton in the polls, especially following last week's letter sent from FBI Director James Comey to Congress regarding the investigation into Clinton's emails and we wondered if Twitter sentiment was echoing that trend.
Presidential Politics Data Series
Oct. 20, 2016
Presidential Politics Data Series
Oct. 10, 2016
by Sarah Ammar Last night’s debate was a different format, arguably a different tone, and started out in the wake of what many pundits have dubbed a political “bombshell” for Donald Trump’s campaign. However, our observations of Twitter chatter, and parsing out Twitter sentiment with our debate analysis partners at Kno.e.sis and Cognovi Labs, told a very similar story to the first debate.
Presidential Politics Data Series
Sep. 27, 2016
by Sarah Ammar While the debate about the size of Donald Trump’s hands is in the not-so-distant past of the primaries, tweet volume is on our minds at the Applied Policy Research Institute the day after the first debate of this general election. If you followed our live tweets, or those of our friends at Kno.e.sis or Cognovi Labs, you saw some interesting real-time data output about how Twitter users were responding to the candidates during last night’s debate.
Presidential Politics Data Series
Jul. 14, 2016
Late last month, our friends at Cognovi Labs made headlines in TechCrunch because it seemed their social media analysis of the #Brexit conversation on Twitter was able to accurately predict the outcome of the UK’s vote to leave the European Union. They ran the analysis using Twitris, a technology developed across campus at Kno.e.sis. So we at the Applied Policy Research Institute are wondering if it has the same insight into the Presidential Election, especially as we ramp up for the #WrightStateDebate in September.
Presidential Politics Data Series
Jun. 08, 2016
Our last post explored the Five Ohios theory: the idea that Ohio serves as a bellwether state in Presidential elections because there are five distinct regions in the state with voting behavior that closely mirrors the voting behavior of four regions in the United States. This time, we take a look at demographic data that can illuminate what may be driving those similarities in voting behavior.
Presidential Politics Data Series
Apr. 21, 2016
Ohio is one of the better-known battle-ground states in the union, but have you heard the saying, “As Ohio goes, so goes the nation?” It’s a phrase that’s oft-repeated during presidential elections. Though it’s often called a “swing state,” it may be more accurate to call Ohio a bellwether, because Ohio’s voting behavior is somewhat predictive (as the above adage would indicate).
Presidential Politics Data Series
Mar. 15, 2016
A week ago, a Clinton victory in the Democratic primary appeared inevitable. Hillary Clinton had won a number of southern contests by large majorities and was nearing “presumptive nominee” status. Even Bernie Sanders admitted that his campaign “got decimated” in South Carolina a few weeks ago. But this scenario might have changed last week, when Bernie Sanders pulled off a shocking upset in Michigan. In fact, Nate Silver called the results in Michigan “among the greatest polling errors in primary history”. This surprising victory has energized the Sanders campaign. So was the Michigan result an aberration or a sign of deeper Sanders’ support and momentum in the Midwest?
Ohio Primary Preview: Part 1
Presidential Politics Data Series
Mar. 14, 2016
Ohio voters will get the opportunity to weigh in on the 2016 presidential nominee tomorrow, Tuesday, March 15. The value of winning Ohio carries symbolic importance for both parties. As a national bellwether, candidates can use a strong showing in the Buckeye State to assert that they are a national contender. Moreover, the winner-take-all rules in the Republican Party make Ohio one of the most valuable prizes in the primary to date, giving the winner 5 percent of the total delegates they need to get to the 1,237 delegates needed to win the election.
Presidential Politics Data Series
Mar. 08, 2016
There is little argument that presidential campaign spending is a “hot button” issue in American politics, and many factors contribute to this. There has been a dramatic increase in the amount of money spent on presidential election campaigning; political action committees have emerged as dominant players in the campaign cycle; the advance of technology has created new ways that messages and campaigning can reach citizens. These developments and more tend to prompt questions of what campaign spending should look like in a democracy.
From the Director
Feb. 29, 2016
On behalf of the staff of the Applied Policy Research Institute (APRI), thank you for visiting our new website. You’re among the first to see our updated website, our new name, and our new logo, all of which are hallmarks of growth for our organization. For the last three decades, we’ve existed as a thought partner to leaders in government and non-profits around the Miami Valley, and we continue to build upon that role through an expanded and diversified portfolio of applied policy research. In the future, we intend to extend our reach to additional decision makers in the region and beyond.